Metro jobless rate plummets two percent
4.28.2011by: LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
Thursday, April 28, 2011
4/28/2011 4:58:35 AM
The Tulsa metro area's jobless rate plummeted to 6.5 percent in March - the lowest in two years, according to information released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission.
March's rate plunged from a revised 7.8 percent in February. In March 2010, the unemployment rate was 8.3 percent.
One state economist, however, cautioned against celebrating the lowered rate, urging instead a wait-and-see approach.
Lynn Gray, the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission's chief economist, has noted that the BLS has begun using modified procedures in producing Oklahoma's estimates, relying less on local knowledge of the state's economy and more on statistical methodology. It's possible that these new procedures led to the large increase in employment, he said.
Beginning with the preliminary estimates for March, the federal BLS took responsibility for producing Oklahoma's nonfarm employment instead of the OESC.
The procedural change applies to every state, not just Oklahoma, Gray said.
"They have eliminated analysts' intervention. ... It's possible to get more month-to-month volatility without having an experienced analyst who understands the local economy making some judgment calls," Gray added.
The area's jobless rate peaked at 8.9 percent in January and February of last year. The last time the metro area recorded a lower rate occurred in April 2009, when the rate was 6.2 percent.
It's very likely that even if the procedure hadn't changed, the area would have seen a good March report, Gray said.
"I think our only concern is with the magnitude of the change that we're seeing."
For now, he advises waiting and seeing what happens with the numbers over the next few months.
Based on the larger establishment survey, the area's nonfarm employment grew by 5,000 jobs over the month and 5,300 jobs over the year.
The Tulsa area saw its number of unemployed drop by 5,560. A smaller household survey shows that its total employment, which includes self-employed and farm jobs, rose by 2,430.
The labor force, however, shrunk by more than 3,000.
Bob Ball, economic research manager for the Tulsa Metro Chamber, also attributed the significant change in the employment data to the methodology change as well as to a "good month of hiring."
Among individual sectors, employment services which includes temporary workers was up 8.9 percent, or 1,000 jobs, from the same time a year ago. "That is a good sign that we will have more permanent jobs across the board and across the sectors," Ball said.
Nationwide, unemployment rates were lower in March than a year earlier in 317 of the 372 metropolitan areas, while rates were higher in 44 areas and unchanged in 11 areas, according to the BLS.
Oklahoma City metro's rate of 5.2 percent was the lowest jobless rate among the nation's 49 metros with populations of 1 million or more.
Again, El Centro, Calif., recorded the highest jobless rate at 24.6 percent in March. Lincoln, Neb. had the lowest rate at 4.1 percent, according to the BLS.
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